Execution, macro and valuation assumptions disappoint.
NGX: SEPLAT · Energy
Seplat Energy
Nigeria's leading listed independent energy company, with oil, domestic gas and growing infrastructure exposure.
PublishedInvestment view
Excellent company. A price that has heard the news.
MPNU adds scale, ANOH supplies a second growth engine and the balance sheet has strengthened. The remaining question is whether the current price leaves enough room for operating and Nigerian-risk surprises.
Financial evidence
The numbers that carry the argument
Figures are reference-period data, not a live market feed.
Revenue$1.82bn
EBITDA$939m
Free cash flow$526m
Net debt / EBITDA0.25×
CoveragePublished
Scenario valuation
The range matters more than the decimal.
Normalised operating delivery and disciplined capital allocation.
Strong delivery, supportive macro conditions and rerating.
Risks
What can break the thesis
- Oil-price and production volatility
- Ageing offshore infrastructure
- Fiscal intervention and receivables
- Capital allocation after deleveraging
Company research
Reports, filed under the company
Company analysis · 2 Aug 2026
Seplat Energy: Excellent Company, Demanding Price
MPNU adds scale, ANOH adds growth and leverage has collapsed. The market has noticed.
Read report →Company analysis · 31 Jul 2026Seplat and the Privilege of Dollar Earnings
The currency hedge is real. So are operating concentration, fiscal terms and the danger of adventurous capital allocation.
Read report →